Poroshenko would likely lose, even if he was standing against a sack of rotten potatoes. (That is if the law would allow a sack of potatoes to stand as a candidate for president.)
The result of the first round reflects a total distrust of Ukrainians in their politicians. Zelensky’s election will lead to a collapse of the prestige of the presidency, perhaps to a collapse of the entire institution of the Ukrainian Presidency. Apparently, a majority of Ukrainians do not consider this a bad alternative.
I was amazed in 2014 that nobody in Ukraine was prepared to defend the institution of the Presidency or the Ukrainian constitution. Revolutionary necessity stampeded over legality. Ukrainian institutions today have much less credibility than they did five years ago.
Based on the result of the first round, I don’t believe Poroshenko has a chance to win in the second round runoff. The elections have turned into a protest against Poroshenko and the entire Maidan administration.
If however, the official results of the runoff give Poroshenko a majority, there is every reason to suspect that the ballot boxes have been stuffed with fake ballots for Poroshenko.
Petri Krohn, Finnish analytic, blogger and political commentator
Fake Elections in Ukraine, March-April, 2019 